Under Armour

Under Armour released 4 Quarter financial results this morning before the bell. Earned $0.34 a share, beating estimates by $0.2. Revenues rose 29.2% to $174.8 million, ahead of the forecasted $173.5 million. On the downside, Under Armor lowered revenue guidance to $765-775 million, below estimates of $787.87 million. The stock is currently trading up 7% at $40 a share.

Fed Cuts Rates

The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 1/2%, dropping it down to 3%.


The GDP report, released this morning, revealed that the economy grew a limping 0.6% in the final 3 months of last year, less than half of what was expected.

Federal Reserve

Big announcement today from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates. Traders are expecting a 50 basis point cut.

Yingli Green Energy (YGE)

Possible double bottom. Could be poised for major price advance. Distribution is a concern.

Pharmaceutical Product Development (PPDI)

One of the few stocks that is still above its 50 day m.a. and still above its first level of support. Notice the increase on huge volume. No heavy distribution.

Covance (CVD)

Within first layer of support. Fighting to stay above 50 day m.a. Gapped down on above average volume.

Mercadolibre (MELI)

Gapped down on heavy volume. Still in downward trend. Keep in mind when market turns around.

Under Armour (UA)

Gapped down on huge volume after releasing disappointing forecast. Shares have filled gap on weak volume. Reports 1/31. Up over 7% today on news of cross trainer shoes.

First Solar (FSLR)

Broke trend line. Still below 50 day m.a.

New York Mercantile Exchange (NMX)

Currently in talks to be bought out by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for $11 billion. Up sharply on huge volume but still below 50 day m.a.

Chipotle Fundamentals

52 week high = $155.49
52 week low = $56.66

Stock is currently trading near 52 wk high which is a good sign.

Relative Strength (RS)

Last 3 mths = 3.4 % 88 percentile of all stocks
Last 6 mths = 69.2% 99
Last 12 mths = 129.2% 99

Want to buy stocks with an RS above 80

Return on Equity (ROE) = 12.89%

Preferably look for an ROE above 17%

Net Profit Margin = 6.28%

Would like to see this above 25%

Earnings (qtr vs qtr, yr vs yr)

'07 '06 '05
0.38 vs. 0.26 vs. 0.10
0.61 vs. 0.33 vs. 0.98
0.63 vs. 0.36 vs. 0.19
0.33 vs. 0.16

46% increase from q1 '06 to '07
160% increase from q1 '05 to '06
85% increase from q2 '06 to '07
-66% decrease from q2 '05 to '06
75% increase from q3 '06 to '07
89% increase from q3 '05 to '06
106% increase from q4 '05 to '06

Definitely a growing company. Pretty solid earnings, consistent except for q2 in 05 to 06.

Chipotle Chart Analysis

The weekly graph shows some distribution but that was followed by a strong week of accumulation. Still holding its first level of support.

Chipotle held its first level of support during the recent correction. No major distribution has come into the stock on a daily basis. Looks to be forming the right side of a cup. Very strong accumulation when they last reported earnings.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

Watch out Moe's & Qdoba, there's a new sheriff in town! Last Saturday, Carol and I stopped by Chipotle and had lunch. I'm no culinary expert but there chicken burrito was excellent! They are going to give Moe's and Qdoba some stiff competition. One of the things I like about them is that they use all natural, organic food. This helps a lot with the flavor. I could tell a huge difference in their burrito compared to Moe's. Needless to say, CMG's stock is a good one to consider.

Apple Chart Analysis

Apple logged a distribution (selling on above average volume) day on 1/22/08. The stock broke the lower part of its downward trend-line, indicating it may make lower lows. Always remember to cut your losses at 7% below your purchase price.

Apple (AAPL)

On Tuesday, January 22nd, Apple reported earnings of $1.76 per share on revenue of $9.6 billion. Apple handily beat estimates of $1.61 per share on revenue of $9 billion. For the same quarter last year, Apple reported earnings of $1.14 per share on revenue of $7.12 billion. This was Apple's best quarter ever. Despite reporting record earnings, Apple's stock dropped 13% due to their guidance. They are forecasting earnings and revenue below analysts expectations. Apple is forecasting earnings of $0.94 on revenue of $6.8 billion, below estimates of $1.08 on revenue of $7 billion.

iPod sales are starting to slow. Apple shipped 22.1 million iPods over the holiday season, up 5% from last year. This was below forecasts ranging from 22.4 to 25 million.

Mac sales were up 44% from last year, totaling 2.3 million. iPhone sales also totaled 2.3 million.

Gross margin was 34.7%, up from 31% in the previous quarter. Apple expects this to fall to 32% this quarter.

Net profit totaled $1.58 billion, up from $1 billion in last year's quarter.

It's Official!!!

After dropping more than 20% from its high of 2862 on 10/31/07, the Nasdaq has now officially entered a bear market. The index dropped further below its bottom trendline signaling further decline.

Trade Analysis- FCSX

On Monday, January 14 2008 I went long in shares of FCSX. Bought in the price range of $51.99, the stock closed 1/14/08 at $52.40. Should have taken my profits in this volatile market but I figured that there would be more upside potential to this stock given their earnings report. Turned out to be not the case. Stock reversed, setting lower lows and I sold out on Wednesday, January 17, 2008 @ $49.20. Not a big loss but nonetheless it is still a loss.

Lesson learned= no matter how good a company's earnings are, the stock will not advance unless the proper market conditions are in place.

Market Analysis

Analysis of the 3 major indices:

1)Dow-continues to drop further. Logged a huge distribution(selling) day on 1/16/08 with volume roughly 30% higher than the previous session. Undercut last year's low of 12,518.

2)Nasdaq- basically in a downward spiral. Has fallen more than 300 points since 12/26/07. Keeps breaking through each level of support, setting lower lows on higher than above average volume. Very, very bad sign.

3)S&P- has given up all of 2007's gains in less than a month. Setting lower lows on above average volume. Be very weary.

To sum it all up, going long in this market would be disastrous. Waiting until further confirmation from the market to get back in. Yes the markets look oversold but you'll only hurt yourself trying to catch a falling knife.

Markets extend losses

Not even the Fed can help the markets out right now. Their incentive plan, consisting mainly of tax rebates, was given a thumbs down by all the major indices on Thursday. It seems all but certain that we are going into a recession. Currently sitting in 100% cash until the bleeding stops.

FC Stone Group (FCSX)

Before the bell on 1/14/08, FC Stone Group (FCSX) reported 1st Quarter earnings of $13.1 million, or $0.45 a share on revenue of $73.7 million. 1st quarter earnings estimates were expected to come in at $0.33 a share on revenue of $72 million. They beat earnings by $0.12 cents and revenue by $1.7 million. Very impressive!

On 1/14/08 FCSX broke out of its base (indicated by blue line). The intra-day high in the base was $49.38 which would set the buy point at $49.48 ($0.10 above high). Notice the volume. The average volume is 436,000 shares traded daily. Yesterday, 2.9 million shares were traded. This is very important, indicating institutions/mutual funds/hedge funds are buying in.

The first chart is a daily chart, the second chart is a weekly chart. On the weekly chart, FCSX first broke out of its base on November 12, 2007 on heavy volume.

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Lift Off!

Hello Everyone and welcome to my first ever blog! No, I have not been living in a cave, just a little slow to start. My main objective is to provide helpful information regarding the stock market. I'll be posting charts and various other information related to the market. Hopefully we will gain some knowledge and start building wealth!